CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-08-19T04:44:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-08-19T04:44ZCME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-22T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:
M1.6 flare slow rise and fall. Due to AR3087 location on the disk, like earlier CMEs the associated CME again quite southward with a component out of the ecliptic, together with the longitudinal west location perhaps increasing the westward direction component of the CME, so south and west in direction, but with some potential to partial hit the Earth's magnetosphere.Lead Time: 46.67 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-08-20T04:20Z
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